Nigeria’s 2019 election: A two-horse race with uninspiring candidates

Almost all of Nigeria’s political
parties have wrapped up their primaries and chosen candidates to stand in the
country’s February 2019 general election.

The poll is likely to be yet another
two-horse race: a contest between the All Progressives Congress (APC) and
People’s Democratic Party (PDP).

These are the only two parties to
win the presidency since the end of military rule in 1999.

The Conversation Africa’s Julius
Maina spoke to Olayinka Ajala about the emerging campaign issues and the
surprises so far.

Olayinka Ajala

Who are the main candidates for the
February election?

Thirty one candidates have emerged
to contest the presidential election. That number will probably be reduced
before the elections, as several smaller parties are in talks to form
coalitions.

But there are only two leading
contenders – the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari, and Atiku Abubakar, who
was vice-president under President Olusegun Obasanjo from 1999 to 2007.

Both are contesting on the platforms
of the two largest parties in Nigeria.

Apart from the two main contenders,
other popular names on the list are former governor Donald Duke alongside Oby
Ezekwesili. She’s the former minister of
education and co-founder of Transparency International.

What are the emerging campaign
issues?

The campaign issues are similar to
those that featured in the 2015 presidential elections. These included
political violence, particularly an end to the Boko Haram insurgency and the
recent conflict between herdsmen and farmers which has claimed thousands of
lives.

Corruption will also loom large.
Buhari claims to have curtailed corruption, particularly since the introduction
of the single treasury account that has reduced “leakages” in the country’s
finances. But the state of the economy and the increase in youth unemployment
has negatively affected the current government’s image. The Atiku campaign has
capitalised on this.

Other issues that have emerged
include a lack of infrastructure, lopsided political appointments – as the
president is often accused of neglecting federal character when making
political appointments as well as the president’s health. These are likely to
dominate the campaign when it officially kicks off in December.

Buhari’s health is likely to feature
extensively given that he spent about 15% of his first term in office receiving
medical treatment abroad.

Have there been any surprises ahead of the
2019 ballot?

The first major surprise was the
emergence of Atiku Abubakar as the People’s Democratic Party candidate. Atiku,
one of the founding members of the PDP, emerged as the flag bearer for the
party despite being relatively quiet politically in the last few years
following his movement from PDP to APC and then back to PDP.

The second surprise was former
president Olusegun Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku. Earlier in the year
Obasanjo wrote an open letter to Buhari advising the president not to seek a
second term. He argued that Buhari had under-performed and was incapable of
understanding the problems the country faces. Subsequently, Obasanjo formed a
movement to unseat the incumbent president.

Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku came
as a shock to most Nigerians because of his frosty relationship with the former
vice-president. Obasanjo famously stated in August 2018; If I support Atiku for
anything, God will not forgive me. If I do not know, yes. But once I know,
Atiku can never enjoy my support.

The sudden turn around by the former
president just two months later to ”forgive and endorse” Atiku came as a
surprise to most Nigerians.

What do the primaries tell us about
women’s participation?

Despite the large number of
aspirants for the 2019 elections, women and young people remain
underrepresented. Although six women emerged before the presidential primaries,
the number dropped to three immediately after the primaries. Also, several
young people were unable to contest in the primaries because of the cost of
nomination forms.

Elections are costly affairs in
Nigeria. The ruling party charges candidates $125,000 (£97,000) to be able to
stand for nominations. The People’s Democratic Party also charged $33,000
(£26,000) for its nomination forms. This is in a country where the minimum wage
is less than $100 a month.

The government’s insincerity in
supporting women and young people was laid bare in June 2018 when the president
passed a bill titled ”Not too young to rule”. The bill was designed to support
the political aspiration of young people interested in pursuing a political
career. Minutes after signing the legislation, the president commended the
national assembly for passing the bill – but warned that young people would
still have to wait till 2023 before they would actually be given the
opportunity.

With just a few months to the polls,
most Nigerians remain frustrated and concerned because neither of the two
leading presidential aspirants offers any real hope.

The president has been accused of
being too slow and too ill to handle the rigours of the position. The multiple
allegations of corruption and fraud levelled against Atiku, meanwhile, continue
to taint his image and hopes of gaining power from the Buhari administration.

Unless a credible consensus
candidate emerges, the 2019 presidential elections remains a two-horse race
with none of the contenders really appealing to the populace.

Olayinka Ajala, Associate Lecturer and Conflict Analyst, University of York.

Culled
from News24